Democrats Face Ethics Allegations This Fall

A second House Democrat, Rep. Maxine Waters of California, could face an ethics trial this fall, further complicating the election outlook for the party as it battles to retain its majority.

People familiar with the investigation, who were not authorized to be quoted about charges before they are made public, say the allegations could be announced next week. The House ethics committee declined Friday to make any public statement on the matter.

Waters, 71, has been under investigation for a possible conflict of interest involving a bank that was seeking federal aid. Her husband owned stock in the bank and had served on its board.

New York Democrat Rep. Charles Rangel also faces an ethics trial this fall on charges that include failure to disclose assets and income, nonpayment of taxes and doing legislative favors for donors to a college center named after him.

Brian Maughan Sunday's Guest On The Verdict

Oklahoma County Commissioner Brian Maughan is Sunday's guest on "The Verdict" on Cox Channel 3 in Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

The show, which airs at 9 a.m. and repeats Monday at 9 a.m. and Tuesday and Wednesday at 10 a.m., is hosted by Kent Meyers and Mick Cornett.

Why Pollsters Got The Primary So Wrong

By Bryon Allen/Wilson Research Strategies ~ For those of you paying more attention to campaigns in Kansas, Missouri, Michigan, and Tennessee in the run-up to next week’s big block of primaries, the Oklahoma primaries may have slipped by unnoticed.

But, the Oklahoma political insiders got a bit of surprise last Tuesday as Jari Askins beat sitting Attorney General Drew Edmondson in the Democratic primary for Governor and James Lankford took a first place finish into a run-off for the Republican nomination in the Fifth Congressional District.

This came as a particular surprise because two highly reported polls taken immediately before the primary showed Edmondson leading Askins by 16 in the case of the Tulsa World’s Oklahoma Poll (conducted by SoonerPoll.com) and 11 in the case of the Sooner Survey and the same Tulsa World poll showed Lankford trailing Kevin Calvey by eight.

Now the Oklahoma blogosphere is atwitter with discussion of how the polls could have gotten it so wrong. We are reminded, more than a little, of the discussion in the wake of another major polling failure—the failure of many outlets to correctly model the New Hampshire Democratic primary of 2008.

AAPOR, the professional organization of the polling community, conducted a major investigation of the New Hampshire polling and released a multi-hundred page report of findings.

We think that many of those findings apply in a substantial way to the failure of the public polling in Oklahoma to correctly analyze the outcome of this week’s primaries. But the biggest one is this, primary elections require very well-crafted likely voter models to find the population of actual primary voters and sample from them.

At the very least a good primary voter model will need to:
~ Rely heavily on past turnout behavior to ensure an unbiased, baseline, population of primary voters from whom to sample.
~ Allow for flexibility to include populations of less frequent primary voters who are highly engaged and interested to capture the fluctuation in sub-group turnout that can cause surprise outcomes.

While we don’t have the data in hand to evaluate the two flawed Oklahoma polls’ baseline likely voter models or how they handled the possibility of surges in sub-groups of more irregular voters, we would recommend that both pollsters spend some time analyzing their use of previous behavior and current engagement data as they model the likely electorate in future primary in hopes of avoiding these issues going forward.

Blogger Ron Black: Don't Count Calvey Out Yet

www.ronblackradio.blogspot.com.

[Note: Ron Black supports Independent Dave White in the 5th District race.]

TV's (Mis)Treatment Of The Tea Partiers

MRC.org - Media Research Center

The Alien In The White House

From http://www.investors.com/ ~ The Internet is a large-scale version of the "Committees of Correspondence" that led to the first American Revolution — and with Washington's failings now so obvious and awful, it may lead to another.

People are asking, "Is the government doing us more harm than good? Should we change what it does and the way it does it?"

Pruning the power of government begins with the imperial presidency.

Too many overreaching laws give the president too much discretion to make too many open-ended rules controlling too many aspects of our lives. There's no end to the harm an out-of-control president can do.

Bill Clinton lowered the culture, moral tone and strength of the nation — and left America vulnerable to attack. When it came, George W. Bush stood up for America, albeit sometimes clumsily.

Barack Obama, however, has pulled off the ultimate switcheroo: He's diminishing America from within — so far, successfully.

He may soon bankrupt us and replace our big merit-based capitalist economy with a small government-directed one of his own design.

He is undermining our constitutional traditions: The rule of law and our Anglo-Saxon concepts of private property hang in the balance. Obama may be the most "consequential" president ever.

The Wall Street Journal's steadfast Dorothy Rabinowitz wrote that Barack Obama is "an alien in the White House."

Please read the rest of this thought-provoking column at www.investors.com.

From The Email Que:

The Gadfly Answers Questions

By Mike McCarville

Who'll win this 5th District runoff?
James Lankford.

How did Askins beat Edmondson?
Smart overall campaign. Ground game. That tv commercial promising equal pay for women. Low turnout for Edmondson in Tulsa and northeastern counties.

What questions would you ask Fallin and Askins?
Do you support Obamacare?
Do you support Arizona's immigration law?
Do you favor cutting the budget, or increasing fees and taxes?
Do you believe we need to spend more on public education?
Do you support Governor Henry's highway "spy" camera proposal?

I see you're touting this Muskogee Politico (blog). Are you connected in some way?
Nope. Never met Jamison Faught, but hope to one day. His posts generally are responsible, respectful, informative and spot-on. He puts his name right there with everything he posts; no hiding behind anonymity for him. He also has the youthful enthusiasm that those of us with barnacles can hardly remember.

How much longer do you plan to do TMRO?
I'm only 70. Another 20 or so years, perhaps?

How do you get all this stuff before others do?
Longtime contacts. Lots of folks who give me tips, or hard facts. Constant monitoring of the Internet. Political gut. And getting up early, paying attention.

The other media sometimes uses your stories days or weeks after you do. What's up with that?
Nature of the beast. I jokingly refer to TMRO as a "tip service."

You're a jerk.
Thank you for reminding me of my on-air interview with Jesse Jackson a few years back; he didn't appreciate it when I asked what he does for a living.

Is this going to be a good year for Republicans in Oklahoma?
Yes.

Why did you quit consulting campaigns?
Too many 23-hour days, too many empty motel/hotel rooms, too many bars, too many miles. Crawled off a jet at Will Rogers late in 1990 and haven't been on a plane since. Don't miss it, either.

Why did you quit radio?
Got tired of hearing myself. Disagreed with management over an issue. 'Nuff said.

Not A Question, But A Kind Comment From Steve:
Just wanted to tell you how much I've appreciated your views, writings, voice and just plain ol' common sense approach in what you communicate. I continue to follow your writings. I just wish I had a Mike McCarville to listen to on KTOK (again). You have been and will continue to be a voice to be respected. Well done and keep it up!

Brogdon Sets Fallin Meeting, News Conference

Randy Brogdon said today he will meet with Mary Fallin next Wednesday and they'll hold a news conference after the meeting.

The announcement prompted speculation Brogdon, who lost the Republican gubernatorial primary to Fallin in Tuesday's voting, will endorse her even if it is a week after the votes were counted.

Brogdon said on election night he wanted to consider whether to endorse Fallin. Drew Edmondson, who lost the Democratic nomination to Jari Askins, endorsed her immediately and said he'll work to make sure she's elected.

“Donna and I are taking a much needed mini vacation to catch up on our sleep and spend some quiet time with each other," Brogdon said. "Mary Fallin and I have been in contact and we have a meeting scheduled next week to discuss the Governor’s race as well as some key issues. I will be in the fight for liberty for a long time to come.”

The meeting, Brogdon said, will take place at the campaign headquarters of Fallin for Governor in Oklahoma City on Wednesday at 11:00 AM. A press conference is scheduled to take place immediately following the meeting at 4308 N. Classen Boulveard.

Lankford Hires Thompson's Fundraising Team

Rep. Mike Thompson's fundraising success in his unsuccessful race for the Republican nomination for Congress in the 5th District has been noted by first-place finisher James Langford, who today retained Thompson's fundraiser.

Sagac Public Affairs will provide strategic and day-to-day fundraising services to the campaign, its announcement said. It is credited with helping Thompson raise almost a million dollars.

“I congratulate James and his campaign team for their unprecedented win in Tuesday’s Primary Election,” said Karma Robinson, Sagac Principal. “We are all very excited about assisting in his victory during the Run-off and General Elections.”

“James Lankford’s candidacy is great example of how much momentum can be built from committed, conservative values. We’re happy to be part of moving his campaign and our country forward,” said Trey Richardson, Sagac Principal.

Sagac Public Affairs is a national company providing communications, research, fundraising and management solutions to hundreds of political, non-profit and corporate organizations.

Lankford's hiring of the firm reunites long-standing political allies Richardson and Robinson with Lankford's chief consultant, Neva Hill; the three of them have worked in previous campaigns.

THOMPSON ENDORSES LANKFORD

Mike Thompson today endorsed James Lankford in his 5th District runoff with Kevin Calvey, thus giving Lankford a boost that some had suspected was coming.

The state representative finished third in the GOP congressional primary.

Said Thompson: “On August 24th, voters in Central Oklahoma will have the opportunity to make a critical decision. I ran for Congress because the federal government is out of control. From failed bailouts, the disastrous healthcare takeover, crippling debt and their assault on our economy, Washington politicians have our country on a crash course. If we’re going to stand up for our freedoms, it’s critical we send leaders to Washington who will focus on reform.

"Oklahomans have an opportunity to send a genuine Conservative to Congress. James Lankford is the transformative leader we need. James comes from outside politics and brings a perspective desperately needed in Washington. He doesn’t claim to know how Washington works because, like me, he doesn’t believe it does. He’s honest, straightforward and unlike many politicians, his conservative values won’t change with the environment.

"While I have respect for all of the Republican candidates who ran for the 5th district, I respectfully ask you to join me in voting for James Lankford on August 24th.”

The development is certain to further shake Calvey, who had been perceived as the clear leader in the race until the votes were counted and political novice and former Falls Creek Youth Camp director Lankford eeked out a first-place finish, 33 to 32 percent, in the seven-man primary.

Thompson got about 18 percent, or 10,000, of the votes cast in the primary.

Political Realities: Is Brogdon A Sore Loser?

A blogger who supported Randy Brogdon in the Republican primary for governor this morning asks why Brogdon has not yet endorsed winner Mary Fallin.

www.ldjackson.net

Lankford Says Calvey Initiates 'Deceptive' Attack

James Lankford says that his 5th District Republican primary opponent, Kevin Calvey, has undertaken a "deceptive" attack on him in their runoff for the congressional seat.

Writing on Facebook, Lankford relates, "It has already begun... I have reports tonight that my opponent has already begun deceptive phone 'push' polling. Brace yourself for a phone call that will sound like politics as usual negative campaigning. Yet another example of why we must change the status quo."

The McCarville Report Online has asked the Calvey campaign about the calls Lankford describes.

This Fox Isn't Crazy...

Sarah Palin will be out with a new book this November. It's America by Heart: Reflections on Family, Faith and Flag.

The new book will give Palin a new reason to tour the country, meet voters and make money all at the same time.

HarperCollins, which also published Palin's million-selling Going Rogue, revealed the cover design Thursday.

Noted Quote: About Those Spy Cameras...

The 76 cameras in Arizona didn't produce the revenue stream politicians had anticipated. According to the state, less than a third of the 1.2 million tickets mailed out were ever paid, which meant the government received just $78 million in fine payments -- not the $120 million it projected. Add political pressure to the equation and the disincentives to keep the cameras grew. Dilip Sarangan, security analyst with Frost and Sullivan, agrees that red-light cameras aren't useful for generating revenue. "If you're just looking to get more money into a state, that's not the best idea: It's really too easy for people to contest the charges," he told FoxNews.com. ~ From an analysis on www.foxnews.com

Rasmussen: Fallin Leads Askins 57-36%

From Rasmussen Reports ~ Republican Congresswoman Mary Fallin holds a sizable lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins in Rasmussen Reports' first post-primary look at the race for governor of Oklahoma. The winner will be the state's first woman governor.

Fallin, the winner of a four-way GOP Primary contest on Tuesday, now earns 57% of the vote to Askins 36%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. Askins won a razor-thin victory over state Attorney General Drew Edmondson in Tuesday's Democratic Primary.

Last month, Fallin posted a 55% to 32% lead over Askins. In February in the only other Rasmussen Reports survey of this year's Oklahoma governor's race, the GOP hopeful bested Askins 51% to 37%.

For Askins, the race is clearly an uphill battle in a conservative, Republican-leaning state where opposition to the national health care bill and to the federal challenge of Arizona's immigration law are well above findings nationally. Oklahoma voters also hold a pessimistic view of where the economy is headed. All these issues are creating a difficult environment for Democrats nationally.

Fallin holds a two-to-one lead among male voters and leads by 10 among women.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans support Fallin, while just 66% of Democrats have rallied to Askins thus far. But the Democrat holds a slight lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on July 28, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on Oklahoma's U.S. Senate race on Saturday.

Just six percent (6%) of voters in the state rate the economy as good or excellent, but 56% view it as poor. Fifty-one percent (51%) feel the economy is getting worse, while 23% say it's getting better.

Askins wins strong support from those who say the economy is improving. Fallin earns even stronger support from those who believe it is worsening.

An overwhelming 75% of all Oklahoma voters think the country is in a recession.

Only 21% think the $787-billion stimulus plan proposed by President Obama and passed by Congress has helped the economy. Forty-five percent (45%) think it has hurt. This, too, is a more negative view of the stimulus than voters have nationwide.

Voters are slightly more optimistic about their personal finances, with one-in-three (35%) who rate their personal finances as good or excellent, and just 18% who rate them as poor. But only 20% think their personal finances are getting better, while 44% say they are getting worse.

Two-out-of-three Oklahoma voters (67%) favor repeal of the health care plan, compared to 56% nationally. Twenty-eight percent (28%) oppose repeal. This includes 58% who Strongly Favor repeal and 21% who are Strongly Opposed.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Oklahoma voters favor passage of an immigration law like Arizona's in their state, and 67% disagree with the U.S. Justice Department’s decision to challenge the law in court. Both findings indicate much higher support for the Arizona law in the state than voters express nationally.

Supporters of the Arizona law strongly back Fallin; opponents strongly favor Askins.

Fallin is viewed Very Favorably by 24% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by eight percent (8%).

For Askins, Very Favorables are also 24%, and Very Unfavorables are 12%.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports still considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters approve of the job Brad Henry is doing as governor, while 38% disapprove. This is largely unchanged from the previous survey. The Democratic governor is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.

Henry Endorses Askins, As Did Edmondson; But Where Is Randy Brogdon's Support For Mary Fallin?

Governor Henry today endorsed Jari Askins for governor, no surprise, and Askins thus begins the general election campaign with the support of the popular governor and of the man she beat, Attorney General Drew Edmondson.

Edmondson's support was immediate and intense on election night. He said he will work for Askins and help ensure that Oklahoma's next governor is a Democrat.

See also
http://oklahoma.watchdog.org/1037/will-brogdon-endorse-fallin/

www.ldjackson.net

Republican primary winner Mary Fallin, on the other hand, is still waiting on an endorsement from the man she defeated, Senator Randy Brogdon. Brogdon told reporters on election night he was going to take some time off before deciding whether to endorse Fallin.

On election night, Fallin said she hoped to win the support of Brogdon and his followers.

"Brogdon has said he first wants to take a few days off before making a decision," The Oklahoman reported.

"Senator Brogdon and I have the same common, core values," Fallin said. "We're both conservatives. I think in the end that his supporters will come with us. We're going to continue to fight for our state's rights, and I do believe in our Constitution."

Pinnell: Liberal Democrats Should Apologize

Republican State Chairman Matt Pinnell says Democrats Tom Adelson and Judy Eason McIntyre should apologize for comments criticizing the Legislature as having passed "meaningless pieces of paper."

The two liberal senators made the remark in delivering Obamacare materials to U. S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. They mocked the Legislature, with Republicans in the majority, for spending time on the issue.

“Oklahoma voters overwhelming oppose this federal mandated legislation,” said Pinnell, “and for Oklahoma Democrat legislators to call our efforts here to stop it ‘meaningless’ is disgraceful, and they should apologize for the comment.”

Senate President Pro Tempore Glenn Coffee and House Speaker Chris Benge stated months ago that Obamacare would impose half a trillion dollars in new taxes on American families. It would cost Oklahoma one billion dollars over the next 10 years in new spending. Coffee and Benge simply said, “The people of our state don’t want it. The taxpayers can’t afford it.”

Senator Tom Coburn, M.D. has said in previous statements: “The bottom line is the typical Oklahoman can expect to pay more for lower quality health care with fewer choices.”

“Our GOP candidates have lead the way in opposing Barack Obama's big government agenda and saying no to Obamacare . I'm proud to say Oklahoma voters will have an opportunity to vote for these candidates this November” concluded Pinnell.

Fallin Seeks Help Matching Askins' Checkbook

Mary Fallin today asked potential donors to her campaign for governor to help her match opponent Jari Askins' checkbook.

Fallin, in an email fundraising appeal, wrote, "Oklahoma needs a conservative leader who will bring new jobs and grow our economy, who will cut wasteful spending and protect your tax dollars, who will lower taxes and who will stand up to President Obama’s big-government agenda.

"There's too much at stake for our state leaders to sit on the sidelines while Washington continues to pursue policies that threaten our future.

"I'll stand up for Oklahoma's working men and women and that's why I am the right person for the job of governor. I'll fight to repeal ObamaCare, I'll stand alongside Arizona to protect our borders and I'll push back when Washington reaches too far into our pocket books and our lives.

"But to win in November, I need your financial help today.

"We've had more than 6,600 individual donations from all 77 counties, and your support has meant the world to me! However, we are now facing a candidate who can and will write a personal check to fund a campaign. Our opponent spent nearly $900,000 on her race in 2006 and this year she’s already loaned her gubernatorial campaign $675,000.

"That’s why I need your help today!

"Please give $25, $50, $100, or any amount you can to help us match our opponent, return conservative leadership to the Oklahoma’s governor’s office and win in November.

"And, remember, liberal special-interest groups in Washington don’t want to see me as governor because they know I’ll stand up to their big government, Obama-style philosophy! So please help our campaign and give any amount you can as soon as possible.

"Thank you so much for your help. Your generous donation to my campaign will ensure Oklahoma elects a conservative as its governor and continues to move forward to a better and brighter future."

About To Become A Popular Poster?

This artwork, posted on the Democratic forum www.demookie.com, is likely to become a popular poster as Jari Askins' battle with Mary Fallin develops.

The "artist" is a regular DemoOkie poster named Mitch.

Consumer Advocacy Group Roots for Secondary Schools Financial Education Project.

The Business Times July.23-29.2010
The Tanzania Consumer Advocacy society (TCAS) has argued various companies to support its effort to raise financial knowledge and capability in secondary schools in the county.

Last month TCAS launched one year project on financial education to secondary schools in Ilala municipality. TCAS is working in collaboration with Consumer International and launched by Anne Fansen Fund, and is undertaking that initiative to support teachers to be able to integrate consumer financial education in their teaching and outdoor activities. This is virtual to boost student’s ability to handle financial issues after they finish school.
TCAS executive director Bernard Kihiyo said in an interview that sake holders such as mobile banking operators, insurance firms, capital market firms and others need to participate in this effort. The mater is immense interest and its merits effort of various stakeholders, he said.

The project aims at boosting students’ financial capability when utilizing financial service in future. Among the benefiting schools are Al-Haramain ,Azania ,Benjamin Mkapa ,Dar es salaam, Jangwani ,Kisutu girls ,Mchanganyiko ,Mnazi Mmoja , Tambaza and Zanaki girls .

Flora Mwaikenda a Jangwani secondary school teacher praised the program as helpful for teachers. Another teacher named Flavian Samari said the program help to eliminate gaps in the curriculum, like the new technology of Online banking (E banking), and Electronic Business (E business).
The current curriculum has inadequate information which needs to be updated for instance the role of Bank Of Tanzania (BoT), noting that training must include how consumers benefit from the presence of BoT, he said. Kihiyo said the teaching kit describes the key knowledge bits, understandings, skills and value in consumer and financial literacy the student can acquire through studies in commerce, booking, economics and accountancy.

That way they would acquire basic skills related to earning, financial discipline, spending, budgeting, saving borrowing, and other basic consumer education. ‘More so there is also lack of advice regarding alignment financial market challenges and the content with the exist curricular in Tanzania education system .Lack of up to date advice to teachers around strategies to introduce financial education or to break the content by logical and sequential steps in the class room is a problem ‘.he said .

There is also a lack of advice around of appropriate students activities and classroom task to enable students to engage with the content and to demonstrate relevant educational out comes with the financial market challenges on the ground ‘ he said .

The training courses also aim to build teachers’ ability to provide an effective form of disseminating financial education so that student can understand and know what is available in consumer’s rights protection.
When students know what to expect from individual level to institution protection and can integrate these skills to issues of relevance to classrooms review on the subject, it would add students understanding, draw student’s interests connecting with future day to day life experience on the area of financial matters.

Another objective is that provide awareness of financial opportunities, to know where to go for help, to make informed choices, and to take effective action to improve their financial well being. This would hence improve understanding managing financial matters and risks, deal effectively with market complexity and take advantage of increased competition toward the building of sustainable finance sector in Tanzania.

Politico: Lankford's 'Unfathomable primary win'

By Alex Isenstadt/Politico ~ James Lankford's win in the Oklahoma 5th District primary over Kevin Calvey has some in Washington asking, 'Who?'

A slate of prominent conservative groups—including the Club for Growth, Concerned Women for America, the American Conservative Union, and the Gun Owners of America—endorsed and provided financial backing for Calvey in his bid for the Oklahoma City-area open seat, only to wake up Wednesday to find that the former state legislator finished behind Lankford, a little-known political newcomer waging his first campaign for office.

“I think the question is, ‘Who is James Lankford?’” remarked one Washington-based GOP operative who is supporting Calvey. “I didn’t know Lankford’s name until four weeks ago.”

Lankford, who ran the Christian Falls Creek summer camp and carried the backing of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Rep. J.C. Watts (R-Okla.), heads toward an Aug. 24 runoff with Calvey after finishing first with 34 percent in the five-way (sic) primary. Calvey, who served in the state House from 1998 to 2006, followed in second with 33 percent.

GOP strategists reviewing the primary results suggested a host of explanations for Lankford’s success. Though he spent a relatively modest $284,000 – about half of what the better-funded Calvey invested – he ran an aggressive, grassroots-oriented effort that mobilized the local Christian community.

Some argued Lankford benefitted from his lack of political experience, which enabled him to brand himself as an outsider in a year of intense anti-Washington resentment.

In the final days leading up to the race, Lankford ran a TV ad in which he proclaimed, “All of us that are outside of politics understand: We will never change the status quo in Washington if we send the status quo to Washington.”

That message distinguished Lankford from Calvey and from third-place finisher state Rep. Mike Thompson, both of whom fashioned themselves as conservatives who would oppose the Democratic agenda in Washington.

“Given the guy’s background, it’s quite possible that he brought in a lot of people who aren’t used to voting in primaries,” speculated the operative.

Still, Calvey’s second-place showing has left some Republicans wondering where his campaign went wrong.

“What the heck happened? He had all the advantages,” asked the first operative. “It’s unfathomable.”

Trebor Worthen, a Calvey campaign consultant, insisted that the campaign had never expected a blowout and that a runoff was fully expected.

“It wasn’t a surprise. We expected a tough race all along,” he said. “In short, we never expected it to be easy at all.”

In an interview Wednesday afternoon, Lankford said he wasn’t surprised that he remained a mystery inside the Beltway.

“Washington doesn’t know me, and I don’t know Washington,” he said. “I come from a non-political background.”

Read more at http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/40373.html#ixzz0v3zdBssU.

The Experts Ponder Their Polls: GOTV, Big Mo

In the wake of Tuesday's election in which Jari Askins upset Drew Edmondson in a close finish that all the polls failed to detect, those involved in taking the polls are examining what may have happened. (See story below.)

Analysis

The most likely answer, some agree, is an aggressive "get out the vote" effort that can't be measured in a pre-balloting poll and can skew even the most accurate poll result.

Keith Gaddie of SoonerPoll says of what may have happened, "To that end, let's talk theories: (1) The poll aged. A likely culprit that you bring up, and correctly so. (2) The fact that all the polls tracked together, the wrong way, means that they either all shared an aging flaw, a sampling flaw, or that some other factor rendered them inaccurate. (3) The third question is whether or not the sampling flaw was a function of a bad sample (and therefore afflicting all three polls I know of); a screening flaw (leading to an unrepresentative sample across all polls); or, was it a product of campaign activity that broke the assumptions of the likely voter models used by all the pollsters in play in Oklahoma.

"This last theory is probably the most powerful. As we increase propensity to vote in our screen, Edmondson gets stronger. So, the Askins vote (actual) has to either be a function of conversion by Askins; demobilization of Edmondson voters (given the turnout, possible); and aggressive GOTV by Askins, thereby breaking the sample frame like happened in the NY gubernatorial election in 1994.

"I like this last theory, and am moving to test all three. Part of what I need are the sign-in data, so this will take a several days (maybe a couple of weeks) to get done."

Bill Shapard, also of SoonerPoll, said three factors are important: The voter turnout, the women's vote and the Barry Switzer endorsement of Askins.

Pat McFerron of the Sooner Survey cites several factors that could have resulted in poll results that weren't reflected in the actual voting. He notes, rightly, that voter turnout among Democrats in Tulsa (a perceived Edmondson area of strength) was below that of other regions, especially including Askins' perceived area of strength, southwestern Oklahoma.

McFerron said, "1) It was a snapshot in time. 2) Looks like SW really over-performed (turnout wise) and Tulsa was below. 3) Momentum matters, and Jari had it during the last week."

How Did The Polls Get It So Wrong?

With Jari Askins taking the Democratic nomination for governor from Drew Edmondson in an upset, many are asking today how the polls got that race so wrong.

Just days before the votes were counted, SoonerPoll had Edmondson up by a bunch, 49 to 33 percent. Sixteen points is a substantial lead, even with 18 percent undecided.

The poll came much closer on the GOP side, at least with Mary Fallin's percentage; it was considerably off on Randy Brogdon's percentage, although 22 percent were undecided.

An earlier SoonerPoll was much closer to the actual finish in the Askins-Edmondson race, although it still had Edmondson ahead.

The Sooner Survey's final pre-election measurement had Edmondson's lead over Askins at 38-27 percent, with a huge undecided of 35 percent.

It's a reminder that polls are merely snapshots in time and may or may not reflect actual voter sentiment at the time they are taken, and often are less than accurate after they are taken; that's particularly true in today's volatile political environment.

It's also a reminder that in races with large numbers of "undecided" voters, the results are assumed to be correct at the reader's peril.

Happy Consultants Count Their Winners

Among the happy political consultants today are the partners in AH Strategies in Oklahoma City. They are out with a recap of the victories of their candidates in Tuesday's primaries; all of them won or made it into runoffs.

Karl Ahlgren, Fount Holland, Trebor Worthen and Chad Alexander point to the wins of Ken Miller, who won the Republican primary for state treasurer with over 60% of the vote; Todd Lamb, who became the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor; Kevin Calvey, running in a seven-way primary race in the 5th Congressional District, who made the runoff; and Senate candidates Eddie Fields, Frank Simpson, Rick Brinkley, David Holt, Cliff Aldridge, and Mark Allen. They all won their races with more than 60% of the vote. Rob Johnson won his three-way primary outright.

In the Oklahoma House, they said, clients Glen Mulready, Ryan Smith, Dennis Casey, Jadine Nollan, and Tom Newell also won their primaries in landslide victories, exceeding 60% of the vote in each of their races.

Two Out Of Three Ain't Bad...

Those who voted in The McCarville Report Online's poll just before Tuesday's election were pretty much on target in determining the day's biggest surprises.

Topping the poll: ~ Lankford leads GOP field 47% (which he did)
~ Leonard tops Pruitt 15% (Leonard lost to Pruitt)
~ Askins upsets Edmondson 12% (which she did)

Edmondson: The Last Hurrah

Attorney General Drew Edmondson said that with his loss in the governor's race to Jari Askins, he is retiring from politics.

Photo courtesy The Oklahoman

GOP Sets Record Gubernatorial Primary Turnout

Election Board Secretary Paul Ziriax shares this information this morning:

Here are some quick facts about the voter turnout for the 2010 Gubernatorial Primary Election, based on the preliminary, unofficial returns:

Total turnout for the gubernatorial primaries (Democrats + Republicans) was 512,680. That compares to 446,603 in 2006; 556,265 in 2002; and 648,170 in 1994.

Republicans set a record for turnout in a gubernatorial primary: 249,031. That compares to 182,136 who voted in 2006; 205,876 in 2002; and 205,947 in 1994. (There was not a Republican gubernatorial primary in 1998.) 249,031 is about 30.3% of the 822,290 registered Republicans.

Turnout in the Democratic gubernatorial primary was 263,649. That compares to 264,467 who voted in 2006; 350,389 in 2002; 284,062 in 1998; and 442,223 in 1994. 263,649 is about 26.4% of the 998,964 registered Democrats.

The State Election Board meets at 5:00 PM on Tuesday, August 3, 2010 to certify the Primary Election returns.

The deadline to file a petition requesting a recount or contest is Friday, July 30, 2010 at 5:00 PM.

Chris Wilson: Boren Beat Liberal Democrats

Pollster and consultant Chris Wilson said today that Democratic Congressman Dan Boren, essentially, is bullet-proof.

Wilson, speaking with Reid Mullins on KTOK's morning show, said liberal Democrats "threw everything they had" at Boren in an attempt to defeat him with liberal State Senator Jim Wilson and Boren defeated Wilson in impressive fashion.

Boren took 75.56 percent of the 2nd District vote to just 24.44 percent for Wilson, of Tahlequah. Boren will face the winner of a Republican runoff, but neither candidate is considered a serious contender at this time.

Boren has been the target of months-long ridicule on the primary forum used by activist Democrats in the state, www.demookie.com.

Historic Race For Governor Is Underway In State's First 'Womano-a-womano' Battle For No. 1

With victories in Tuesday's balloting, Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins and Republican Congresswoman Mary Fallin begin their historic battle to become the first woman to claim the governor's office.

Also see Political Realities

Their race already is a first; they are the first women to face each other in a race for the state's top office.

Askins earned her spot with an upset of favored Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Askins won by less than one vote per precinct statewide in a result that reminded some of her underdog victory over Republican Todd Hiett four years ago to win the lieutenant governor's chair.

Askins' win continues Barry Switzer's role as king-maker; he endorsed underdog Brad Henry in 2002 and Henry pulled the upset over Republican Steve Largent.

Switzer taped a late statewide radio ad for Askins, saying she was “a great friend, a great sports fan and she’ll be a great governor,” and also held a rally last week for her in Oklahoma City.

Askins, who was a district judge and the state House Majority Leader before being elected to succeed Fallin as lieutenant governor in 2006, also worked to corral women’s support, running ads promising to equalize gender pay disparity; her equal pay ad was cited by The McCarville Report Online earlier as an important boost for her campaign.

Fallin earned her spot with a tough win over tenacious Senator Randy Brogdon and two other candidates. Fallin has now won eight out of eight elections in which her name has been on the ballot.

Edmondson Concedes To Askins

Attorney General Drew Edmondson just conceded to Lt. Governor Jari Askins.

Edmondson Running Out Of Precincts; Askins Poised To Secure Narrow Upset Win

(DEM) FOR GOVERNOR 2189 OF 2244
JARI ASKINS 130,492 50.53%
DREW EDMONDSON 127,772 49.47%

Lankford Secures The Upset Over Calvey

(REP) FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT NO. 5 340 OF 340
JOHNNY B. ROY 1,548 2.77%
RICK FLANIGAN 762 1.36%
SHANE JETT 5,955 10.66%
JAMES LANKFORD 18,755 33.58%
MIKE THOMPSON 10,007 17.92%
HARRY JOHNSON 686 1.23%
KEVIN CALVEY 18,143 32.48%

Lankford Takes Lead Over Calvey

(REP) FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT NO. 5 267 OF 340
JOHNNY B. ROY 1,081 2.57%
RICK FLANIGAN 574 1.37%
SHANE JETT 4,725 11.24%
JAMES LANKFORD 13,992 33.27%
MIKE THOMPSON 7,529 17.90%
HARRY JOHNSON 517 1.23%
KEVIN CALVEY 13,633 32.42%

Pruitt Apparent GOP AG Nominee

(REP) FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL 1453 OF 2244
RYAN LEONARD 60,349 44.49%
SCOTT PRUITT 75,286 55.51%

Pruitt Leads Leonard

(REP) FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL 1366 OF 2244
RYAN LEONARD 55,920 45.06%
SCOTT PRUITT 68,179 54.94%

Nail Biter: Calvey Leads Lankford By 69 Votes

(REP) FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT NO. 5 201 OF 340
JOHNNY B. ROY 674 2.42%
RICK FLANIGAN 383 1.37%
SHANE JETT 3,566 12.79%
JAMES LANKFORD 8,939 32.07%
MIKE THOMPSON 4,970 17.83%
HARRY JOHNSON 333 1.19%
KEVIN CALVEY 9,008 32.32%

At Half-way Point, Askins Maintains Lead

(DEM) FOR GOVERNOR 1025 OF 2244
JARI ASKINS 63,632 52.60%
DREW EDMONDSON 57,346 47.40%

Calvey Clings To Narrow Lead Over Lankford

(REP) FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT NO. 5 58 OF 340
JOHNNY B. ROY 165 2.47%
RICK FLANIGAN 101 1.51%
SHANE JETT 690 10.32%
JAMES LANKFORD 2,108 31.54%
MIKE THOMPSON 1,240 18.55%
HARRY JOHNSON 110 1.65%
KEVIN CALVEY 2,269 33.95%

(REP) FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT NO. 5 188 OF 340
JOHNNY B. ROY 661 2.46%
RICK FLANIGAN 365 1.36%
SHANE JETT 3,356 12.49%
JAMES LANKFORD 8,530 31.75%
MIKE THOMPSON 4,867 18.12%
HARRY JOHNSON 321 1.19%
KEVIN CALVEY 8,763 32.62%

Coates Leads Clem By 229 Votes

(REP) FOR STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT NO. 28 30 OF 61
TIM CLEM 1,226 45.73%
HARRY COATES 1,455 54.27%

Askins Maintains Lead As Vote Total Grows

Jari Askins is maintaining a slender lead over Drew Edmondson in the Democratic gubernatorial primary even as votes from Edmondson's perceived area of strength, northeastern Oklahoma, are added to the mix and as the vote total grows.

Askins' lead over Edmondson began with the first returns and her percentage lead hasn't changed much since.

AT 8:10PM (DEM) FOR GOVERNOR 295 OF 2244
JARI ASKINS 22,229 53.34%
DREW EDMONDSON 19,449 46.66%

AT 8:20PM (DEM) FOR GOVERNOR 474 OF 2244
JARI ASKINS 33,298 52.50%
DREW EDMONDSON 30,125 47.50%

AT 8:35PM (DEM) FOR GOVERNOR 645 OF 2244
JARI ASKINS 43,027 53.00%
DREW EDMONDSON 38,152 47.00%

AT 8:38PM (DEM) FOR GOVERNOR 728 OF 2244
JARI ASKINS 46,175 53.24%
DREW EDMONDSON 40,562 46.76%

Battle To The Finish: Calvey, Lankford Wrestle

(REP) FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT NO. 5 27 OF 340
JOHNNY B. ROY 98 2.61%
RICK FLANIGAN 44 1.17%
SHANE JETT 419 11.18%
JAMES LANKFORD 1,226 32.71%
MIKE THOMPSON 624 16.65%
HARRY JOHNSON 50 1.33%
KEVIN CALVEY 1,287 34.34%

Leonard, Pruitt Close; Miller Leads Laughlin

(REP) FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL 174 OF 2244
RYAN LEONARD 7,756 48.97%
SCOTT PRUITT 8,082 51.03%

(REP) FOR STATE TREASURER 174 OF 2244
KEN MILLER 9,604 62.63%
OWEN LAUGHLIN 5,730 37.37%

Fallin At 59%, Lamb At 68% In Early Returns

(REP) FOR GOVERNOR 137 OF 2244
RANDY BROGDON 5,201 35.71%
ROGER L. JACKSON 377 2.59%
MARY FALLIN 8,562 58.79%
ROBERT HUBBARD 423 2.90%

(REP) FOR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR 137 OF 2244
BERNIE ADLER 613 4.48%
JOHN A. WRIGHT 2,460 17.98%
TODD LAMB 9,298 67.95%
PAUL F. NOSAK 599 4.38%
BILL CROZIER 713 5.21%

Calvey, Lankford Lead 5th District Race

(REP) FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT NO. 5 19 OF 340
JOHNNY B. ROY 90 3.13%
RICK FLANIGAN 29 1.01%
SHANE JETT 163 5.67%
JAMES LANKFORD 859 29.87%
MIKE THOMPSON 579 20.13%
HARRY JOHNSON 43 1.50%
KEVIN CALVEY 1,113 38.70%

Fallin, Askins, Lankford Lead Early Returns

Mary Fallin, Jari Askins and James Lankford lead their races in early voting returns.

Fallin had 59 percent, Askins 54 percent and Lankford 32 percent in his seven-way race for Congress in the 5th District.

In that race, Kevin Calvey had 31 percent, Mike Thompson 23 percent.

Todd Lamb had 78 percent, Gary Jones 70 percent, Ryan Leonard 59 percent and Ken Miller 65 percent.

The state has 2,244 precincts.

(REP) FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT NO. 5 9 OF 340
JOHNNY B. ROY 39 3.43%
RICK FLANIGAN 8 .70%
SHANE JETT 93 8.18%
JAMES LANKFORD 365 32.10%
MIKE THOMPSON 261 22.96%
HARRY JOHNSON 12 1.06%
KEVIN CALVEY 359 31.57%

(REP) FOR STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT NO. 28 3 OF 61
TIM CLEM 10 76.92%
HARRY COATES 3 23.08%

(REP) FOR STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT NO. 30 5 OF 41
MATT JACKSON 62 39.24%
DAVID HOLT 96 60.76%

Cliff Branan Wins Today And He's Not On The Ballot

Senator Cliff Branan was reelected today and he's not even on the ballot.

The Republican was elected when Democrat Liz Donnelly withdrew from the District 40 race. Her letter of withdrawal is on file at the State Election Board.

The chairman of the Oklahoma Senate Republicans, Senator Brian Bingman, said that with Donnelly's withdrawal, Branan becomes the fifth Republican to be re-elected without Democratic opposition.

“This guarantees at least 25 Republicans will return to the Senate next year. Mathematically, we have not only secured the majority but this reaffirms that we are on the offensive,” Bingman said.

Senate Republicans will need to defend one seat, Senator Cliff Aldridge of Senate District 42, while Democrats are defending nine seats.

Voting Results Available Online Tonight

In addition to the Oklahoma State Election board's posting of results in today's elections, The McCarville Report Online, as in the past, will report the latest totals and provide insight beginning shortly after the polls close.

Interaction is possible with blogger Jamison Faught at www.muskogeepolitico.com. Jamison has installed a program that allows him to post results and then chat with his readers as they discuss the results.

Thompson Support Group Called On FEC Carpet

The Oklahoman's Chris Casteel reports from Washington that, "Business Leaders of Oklahoma, a group of road building companies and energy firms that spent nearly $64,000 on an ad for 5th District congressional candidate Mike Thompson, ran afoul of the Federal Election Commission, which sent the group a letter demanding that its information be filed electronically."

Voter Turnout About What Was Expected

Election officials across the state seem to confirm at mid-day what has been predicted: Voter turnout is moderate, indicating that about 500,000 may cast ballots by day's end.

In Oklahoma City, where a spirited race for the Republican nomination for Congress is being waged, some precincts reported heavy voting while others were not as busy. In some suburban precincts, voting was reported as light.

Election Board Secretary Paul Ziriax estimates about 500,000, or 25 percent, of 2.05 million registered voters will cast ballots today.

Steady but not heavy turnouts have been reported during three days of early, in-person absentee voting at county election boards across the state, he told reporters.

"Everything seems to be running smoothly," Ziriax said. "I'm still very hopeful given the spirited races that are on the ballots that we have an opportunity for a pretty good turnout."

Foul!

Supporters of Republican gubernatorial candidate Randy Brogdon have run afoul of the law in at least three Oklahoma City area precincts.

Brogdon yard signs were in place within 300 feet of a polling place in Midwest City early this morning and were removed. Two hours later, new Brogdon signs had taken their place, with several placed within 100 feet of the polling place.

Precinct officials called the Oklahoma County Sheriff's Department to report the violation.

In northwest Oklahoma City, two report, their polling places also were marked by Brogdon signs within 300 feet of the entrance.

Also in northwest Oklahoma City, State Senate candidate David Holt was startled to find supporters of his opponent well within the 300-foot limit: "I had to call the election board this morning and ask for the police to intervene at precincts 419 (south Quail Creek) and 439 (The Village), where (Matt) Jackson had supporters holding large banners within 50 feet of the door of the polling location. At Quail Creek, they were between the parked cars and the door, and people literally had to walk past them to get in the door."

Election Board Secretary Paul Ziriax said, "Suspected violations of election law should be pointed out to election officials. Depending on the nature of the reported violation, the election officials may advise or warn the alleged violator of the law, or may report the alleged violation to the appropriate law enforcement authorities, or both. Typically, violations of the law are reported to the Sheriff’s office, the police department in a municipality, or the District Attorney."

Misdemaneor election law violations that sometimes occur on Election Day include:

“Electioneering” within 300 feet of a ballot box.

Unauthorized persons within 50 feet of a ballot box.

Possessing intoxicating liquors within one-half mile of any polling place.

Disclosing to any other person how you voted while within the election enclosure.

A longer list of election law violations can be found on pages 28-30 of the Guide to Statewide Elections, published by the State Election Board. You can download the guide at http://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Guide10.pdf.

KTOK's Jerry Bohnen: 'Wouldn't surprise me if Lankford pulls the upset' In 5th District Race

KTOK's veteran news director, Jerry Bohnen, said this morning it "wouldn't surprise me if Lankford pulls the upset" in the race for Congress in the 5th District.

Political newcomer James Lankford has placed second in polls to former Rep. Kevin Calvey.

Rep. Mike Thompson has placed third in the polls, with Rep. Shane Jett a distant fourth.

Bohnen, who has covered Oklahoma elections for 30 years, offered his thoughts during a discussion of the campaigns with Reid Mullins on the station's morning show.

Hill: Expect Significant 5th District Voter Turnout

Veteran political consultant Neva Hill said today that with seven candidates competing for Congress in the 5th District, she expects a significant voter turnout.

Hill commented during a discussion with Reid Mullins on KTOK's morning show.

Hill said that if Mary Fallin and Drew Edmondson are opponents in the general election for governor, money "will pour into the race" from within and without the state.

Hill said the only thing that matters for the candidates today "is who gets out their vote."

Hill is a consultant to the James Lankford for Congress campaign. She's the former co-publisher of The McCarville-Hill Report and publisher of The Hill Report, now The McCarville Report Online.

Griffin: Lankford 'Story of the primary season'

Blogger Andrew Griffin of the Red Dirt Report said today that 5th District congressional candidate James Lankford is "the story of the primary season."

Griffin, speaking with Reid Mullins on KTOK's morning show, said he expects a runoff in the 5th District between political newcomer Lankford and veteran politician Kevin Calvey.

Griffin said Lankford's campaign got boosts from the endorsements of former Congressman J. C. Watts and former Arkansas governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee. He added that Lankford "connected with people" as he campaigned.

In another race, Griffin said Republican attorney general candidate Scott Pruitt has "overtaken" opponent Ryan Leonard and he expects Pruitt to win the primary.

Election Day Notes...

Blogger Andrew Griffin (Red Dirt Report, Oklahoma Watchdog) and political consultant and commentator Neva Hill discuss today's primaries on Reid Mullins' KTOK morning show between 7 and 8 a.m.

State Election Board Secretary Paul Ziriax estimates about 500,000, or 25 percent, of the state's 2.05 million registered voters will cast ballots today.

Voter turnout in the 5th District race for Congress may be high. The three leading candidates, Kevin Calvey, James Lankford and Mike Thompson, all have aggressive get-out-the-vote efforts and with seven GOP candidates, interest in the race has been high.

Congresswoman Mary Fallin won't get to vote for herself for governor today. She took a 5 a.m. flight to Washington to vote on a war funding bill after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the vote would occur today. Fallin said she doubts she'll be able to get back to the state to vote before the polls close at 7 p.m. She does plan to make it back for her election watch party.

Political junkies used to tuning in to KTOK in Oklahoma City for extensive election night coverage apparently won't find it there tonight; the station is airing a baseball game and will rely on periodic election result reports. KOKC won't air election coverage at all. In Tulsa, KRMG and KFAQ plan extensive election return coverage.

Smart Democrats running for Congress are embracing gun rights: http://video.foxnews.com/v/4293780/dems-embracing-guns/.

Your Choices For Today's Biggest Surprise

Today's biggest surprise, voters in The McCarville Report Online's poll, say, will be:

~ Lankford leads GOP field 47%
~ Leonard tops Pruitt 15%
~ Askins upsets Edmondson 12%
~ Senator Harry Coates is upset 8%
~ Fallin hits 65% 6%
~ High voter turnout 5%
~ None of the above 5%
~ Low voter turnout 3%

$70 Million Fee (or tax) Hike: What Did Ken Miller Do, And When Did He Do It?

www.capitolbeatok.com

It’s been a rocky year and a half for the American people, who have continued to suffer from high unemployment rates and a sagging economy.

By Congressman Frank Lucas

And rather than addressing these tough issues facing Americans, the 111th Congress has instead focused on controversial pieces of legislation, massive in size, dramatic in impact, and unfathomable in cost. With only a few full weeks of session scheduled before the end of the year, many Americans have begun breathing a sigh of relief that many of the most controversial pieces of legislation on Speaker Pelosi and President Obama’s agenda will most likely not have time to pass. Perhaps they shouldn’t breathe too quickly – discussions of a possible “lame duck” session have already begun to hit the airwaves.

A “lame duck” session of Congress occurs whenever one Congress meets after its successor is elected, but before the term of the current Congress ends. Historically, these sessions have been used to tie up loose ends. However, the word around Washington has been that congressional Democrats could use this time to pursue an aggressive and substantive agenda during a lame duck session before they lose a large number of seats in both the House and the Senate – and possibly the majority in one or both chambers.

The problem with a lame duck session is that it occurs after many members of Congress have been voted out of office or have retired. They are no longer held accountable for their actions by their constituents and can choose to enact legislation that they usually may not support. Top items in the lame duck session could be the controversial cap-and-tax plan, radical overhaul of our immigration laws, and massive new spending bills aimed at funding their liberal agenda.

Simply put, this is not the way to govern. Lame duck sessions should only be used to wrap up necessary business Congress was unable to complete – not to pass divisive and unpopular legislation that would dramatically alter the way our country operates.

Open Secrets: 5th District GOP Money Trail

Open Secrets provides this analysis of donations to the leading candidates for Congress in the 5th District, based on reports to the Federal Election Commission as of July 7th.

The McCarville Report Online's research is included in parenthetical entries.

Mike Thompson
PACs - $81,050, 9% of total (business employee political action committees, for the most part)
Individuals - $829,712, 91% of total (business and corporate leaders have donated a considerable part of this sum and $23,750, or 4%, has come from out of state donors)

Kevin Calvey
PACs - $9,500, 1% of total
Individuals - $619,079, 70% of total (includes $105,050 from the Club For Growth and donations of $52,050, or 18%, from those outside the state)
Self - $250,100, 28% of total

James Lankford
PACs - $1,000, 0% of total
Individuals - $374,470, 99% of total (mostly smaller donations from within the district; $11,650, or 7 percent, from outside the state)
Self - $100, 0% of total

Tulsa Today Backs Fallin, Host Of Other Republicans

David Arnett, major domo of the influential Tulsa Today website, offers this list of recommended Republican candidates.

For Governor: Mary Fallin

For Lieutenant Governor: John A. Wright or Todd Lamb
Both of these candidates are well founded in conservative principles. The difference is one of style. Todd Lamb is the more outgoing. John A. Wright is more the quiet college professor. We like them both.

For State Auditor: Gary Jones

For Attorney General: Scott Pruitt

For State Treasurer: Owen Laughlin

For Superintendent of Public Instruction: Janet Barresi

For Commissioner of Labor: Mark Costello

For Insurance Commissioner: John Doak

For Corporation Commissioner: Dana Murphy

Noted Quote: Base Vote On Information

Voters should not be swayed by high-pitched rhetoric that's bound to reach the keening level by Tuesday. Voters should remember that bumper-sticker messages, 30-second spots on radio and television, brief printed advertisements and the number of political signs for a particular candidate cannot and do not define the people running for office and their abilities to get the job done.

Voting is a personal decision and should be based on information, not the sound of a candidate's name or the cleverness of campaign ads or a sea of colored signs. These people on the ballot, if elected, someday will have a say in our lives. They will control our tax dollars, oversee the running of government and the enforcement of laws. ~ From an editorial in the Tulsa World

With Hours Left, The Talk Is About James Lankford

With less than 24 hours to go before voters head to the polls in the 5th District Republican primary, much of the conversation among analysts and observers is about political newcomer James Lankford and how well he'll do when the votes are counted.

Democrat Ben Odom, commenting on the GOP race during a discussion with KTOK's Reid Mullins and Republican State Chairman Matt Pinnell, highlighted Lankford as the candidate to watch in Tuesday's voting.

Lankford, former director of the Falls Creek Youth Camp, entered the race as a total unknown. He parlayed his long affiliation with Falls Creek and contacts with attendees and their families into a strong Internet presence and counts 16,000 "Friends" on Facebook. That's far more than any of the other candidates in the race.

Lankford has used the Internet effectively; the image here is being transmitted to friends of his supporters today.

Kevin Calvey, most polls show, leads in the race. Calvey, former House member and Army veteran of JAG service in Iraq, sought the party nomination in the past.

Rep. Mike Thompson has the support of the business community, based on his finance reports. The polls show him in third place, behind Calvey and Lankford.

Rep. Shane Jett of Tecumseh entered the race late, and shows a distant fourth in the polls.

With seven candidates in the race, a runoff is almost a certainty and it's likely the candidates will be Calvey and Lankford. As of Monday, the talk in the race is about Lankford.

Power Of The Polls...Or An Attack That Backfired? Pruitt's Remarkable Last-minute Fundraising

Scott Pruitt's campaign for the Republican nomination for attorney general took flight in recent days with polls showing him leading Ryan Leonard and after a Leonard commercial attacking Pruitt began airing.

Whether the polls influenced donors, or the commercial angered some, or whether neither had any impact, is not fully known; what is known is that Pruitt has raised five times the sum Leonard has raised in the last two weeks and it is clear that something has propelled the rush to donate to Pruitt.

One expert observer notes that Leonard's acceptance of donations from numerous trial lawyers also has hurt him, although it seems unlikely that many voters are aware of it despite some publicity about it.

Ethics Commission reports show that since July 12th, Pruitt has raised $101,809, compared to $21,225 for Leonard, who has raised a substantial $912,000 overall to just $383,000 for Pruitt.

Leonard entered the race long ago and has campaigned across the state. His early fundraising gave him a huge advantage. Pruitt entered the race late and struggled to raise early money.

That appeared to change with polls, some scientific, some not, showing Pruitt leading Leonard.

Leonard's television commercial attacking Pruitt began airing two weeks ago and, some Pruitt supporters say, helped Pruitt more than it hurt him. The commercial questions Pruitt's attempts to win elective office and his credentials as a constitutional attorney.

The commercial also was a clear indication that Leonard's campaign acknowledged Pruitt was ahead in the race; only candidates who trail are inclined to attack opponents.

Poll: Fallin, Edmondson Headed To Victory

Read the poll results at www.tulsaworld.com or at www.soonerpoll.com.

Candidate Loans Fuel Some Campaigns

With campaign donations flowing this election year, some candidates nonetheless have loaned substantial sums to their campaigns to keep pace.

The largest sum, $675,000, has been kicked in by Lt. Governor Jari Askins in her bid for the Democratic nomination for governor against Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who leads all candidates thus far in the sum raised.

But it's not just the major candidates who have ponied up to propel their campaigns.

An example is in Norman, where House District 45 candidate Aaron Stiles, Republican, loaned his campaign $20,000 as he prepares to face incumbent Democrat Wallace Collins this fall.

Stiles shows a total raised of $26,110, meaning most of his campaign cash came out of his own pocket. He's spent only $2,300.

Collins, Stiles' opponent, raised about $12,500 in the quarter and $24,000 previously. He reports about $29,000 in cash on hand.